solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.uncertainty

solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.uncertainty(obs, fx, fx_prob)[source]

Uncertainty (UNC) of the forecast.

UNC = base_rate * (1 - base_rate)

where base_rate = 1/n sum_{i=1}^n o_i, and o_i is the observed event.

Parameters:
  • obs ((n,) array_like) – Observations (physical unit).
  • fx ((n,) array_like) – Forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval, e.g., fx = 10 MW is interpreted as forecasting <= 10 MW.
  • fx_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the forecasts.
Returns:

  • unc (float) – The uncertainty [unitless], where lower values indicate the event being forecasted occurs rarely.
  • See Also
  • ———
  • brier_decomposition (3-component decomposition of the Brier Score)