# solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.reliability¶

solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.reliability(obs, fx, fx_prob)[source]

Reliability (REL) of the forecast.

REL = 1/n sum_{i=1}^I N_i (f_i - o_{i,avg})^2

where n is the total number of forecasts, I is the number of unique forecasts (f_1, f_2, …, f_I), N_i is the number of times each unique forecast occurs, o_{i,avg} is the average of the observed events during which the forecast was f_i.

Parameters: obs ((n,) array_like) – Observations (physical unit). fx ((n,) array_like) – Forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval, e.g., fx = 10 MW is interpreted as forecasting <= 10 MW. fx_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the forecasts. rel (float) – The reliability of the forecast [unitless], where a perfectly reliable forecast has value of 0. See Also ——— brier_decomposition (3-component decomposition of the Brier Score)