solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.crps_skill_score

solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.crps_skill_score(obs, fx, fx_prob, ref, ref_prob)[source]

CRPS skill score.

CRPSS = 1 - CRPS_fx / CRPS_ref

where CRPS_fx is the CPRS of the evaluated forecast and CRPS_ref is the CRPS of a reference forecast.

Parameters:
  • obs ((n,) array_like) – Observations (physical unit).
  • fx ((n, d) array_like) – Forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF with d intervals (d >= 2), e.g., fx = [10 MW, 20 MW, 30 MW] is interpreted as <= 10 MW, <= 20 MW, <= 30 MW.
  • fx_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the forecasts.
  • ref ((n, d) array_like) – Reference forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF with d intervals (d >= 2), e.g., fx = [10 MW, 20 MW, 30 MW] is interpreted as <= 10 MW, <= 20 MW, <= 30 MW.
  • ref_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the reference forecast.
Returns:

skill (float) – The CRPS skill score [unitless].