solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.resolution¶
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solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.
resolution
(obs, fx, fx_prob)[source]¶ Resolution (RES) of the forecast.
RES = 1/n sum_{i=1}^I N_i (o_{i,avg} - o_{avg})^2where n is the total number of forecasts, I is the number of unique forecasts (f_1, f_2, …, f_I), N_i is the number of times each unique forecast occurs, o_{i,avg} is the average of the observed events during which the forecast was f_i, and o_{avg} is the average of all observed events.
Parameters: - obs ((n,) array_like) – Observations (physical unit).
- fx ((n,) array_like) – Forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval, e.g., fx = 10 MW is interpreted as forecasting <= 10 MW.
- fx_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the forecasts.
Returns: res (float) – The resolution of the forecast [unitless], where higher values are better.
See also
brier_decomposition()
- 3-component decomposition of the Brier Score