solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.reliability(obs, fx, fx_prob)[source]

Reliability (REL) of the forecast.

REL = 1/n sum_{i=1}^I N_i (f_i - o_{i,avg})^2

where n is the total number of forecasts, I is the number of unique forecasts (f_1, f_2, …, f_I), N_i is the number of times each unique forecast occurs, o_{i,avg} is the average of the observed events during which the forecast was f_i.

  • obs ((n,) array_like) – Observations (physical unit).
  • fx ((n,) array_like) – Forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval, e.g., fx = 10 MW is interpreted as forecasting <= 10 MW.
  • fx_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the forecasts.

rel (float) – The reliability of the forecast [unitless], where a perfectly reliable forecast has value of 0.

See also

3-component decomposition of the Brier Score