solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.brier_skill_score¶
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solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.
brier_skill_score
(obs, fx, fx_prob, ref, ref_prob)[source]¶ Brier Skill Score (BSS).
BSS = 1 - BS_fx / BS_refwhere BS_fx is the Brier Score of the evaluated forecast and BS_ref is the Brier Score of a reference forecast.
Parameters: - obs ((n,) array_like) – Observations (physical unit).
- fx ((n,) array_like) – Forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval, e.g., fx = 10 MW is interpreted as forecasting <= 10 MW.
- fx_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the forecasts.
- ref ((n,) array_like) – Reference forecast (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval.
- ref_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the reference forecast.
Returns: skill (float) – The Brier Skill Score [unitless].