solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.uncertainty¶

solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.uncertainty(obs, fx, fx_prob)[source]¶

Uncertainty (UNC) of the forecast.

UNC = base_rate * (1 - base_rate)

where base_rate = 1/n sum_{i=1}^n o_i, and o_i is the observed event.

Parameters:	obs ((n,) array_like) – Observations (physical unit). fx ((n,) array_like) – Forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval, e.g., fx = 10 MW is interpreted as forecasting <= 10 MW. fx_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the forecasts.
Returns:	unc (float) – The uncertainty [unitless], where lower values indicate the event being forecasted occurs rarely.