solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.brier_skill_score

solarforecastarbiter.metrics.probabilistic.brier_skill_score(obs, fx, fx_prob, ref, ref_prob)[source]

Brier Skill Score (BSS).

BSS = 1 - BS_fx / BS_ref

where BS_fx is the Brier Score of the evaluated forecast and BS_ref is the Brier Score of a reference forecast.

Parameters:
  • obs ((n,) array_like) – Observations (physical unit).
  • fx ((n,) array_like) – Forecasts (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval, e.g., fx = 10 MW is interpreted as forecasting <= 10 MW.
  • fx_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the forecasts.
  • ref ((n,) array_like) – Reference forecast (physical units) of the right-hand-side of a CDF interval.
  • ref_prob ((n,) array_like) – Probability [%] associated with the reference forecast.
Returns:

skill (float) – The Brier Skill Score [unitless].